In the framework of its activities in the field of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, which represent a priority for the Organisation, the Central European Initiative has commissioned a Report to BLOOMBERG – NEW ENERGY FINANCE on “Next Generation Ethanol and Bioproducts: Opportunities in Central and Eastern Europe”.
This report, quite comprehensive but very conservative in its approach, elaborates two main scenarios: 1) a fuel-demand scenario showing what it would take to replace 10% of forecast gasoline demand by 2020 with next generation ethanol supply according to EU legislation: reasonable but achievable penetration which does not even rely on significant changes to the existing vehicle fleet; 2) a residue-potential scenario showing how much gasoline could be replaced with next generation ethanol if only 17.5% of the available agriculture residue were used, i.e. without changing land use pattern (crop distribution) and current use of residue (also for soil protection and animal husbandry). Striking potential benefits of Next Generation Biofuels in the CEI region - according to the residue potential scenario of the Bloomberg Report which considers agricultural waste as feedstock only (for which cost-efficient technology is ready, and assuming no change in today’s land use pattern and converting all agricultural residue available to bioenergy, i.e. 17.5% equal to 75 million dry tonnes by 2030) - are summarised as follows: - Job creation, up to 580.000 man-years of employment in the years 2012-2030 and up to 36.000 permanent jobs predominantly in rural areas (collecting and transporting residue and operating biorefineries); - Innovation and economic growth, with an ethanol potential in 2030 of 30 billion litres per year, requiring a total investment of 40 billion EUR in 2012-2030 for a total revenue of +/- 260 billion EUR in 2012-2050; - Energy security, moving from high dependence on foreign oil towards greater self-sufficiency in fuel for transport; - Environment Protection through a reduction of CO2 emissions (around 40%) by replacing 61% of fossil gasoline in 2030 with next generation ethanol converted from agricultural residue. Download full Report